Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Novak 45.6% (+13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.7%
Defensive zone
Novak 59.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tavares
Novak
Last 7: Tavares 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Tavares
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
43.8% (384)
+13.7%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
58.8% (17)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
100.0% (1)
-40.9%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +40.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
61.0% (661)
46.5% (202)
Away
55.3% (584)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
58.6%
49.2%
P2
57.8%
44.2%
P3
58.4%
40.0%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 04:35 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |