Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Novak 43.5% (+17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 85.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 83.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
40.7% (460)
+18.5%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
61.5% (39)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
0.0% (1)
+42.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
57.5% (668)
47.0% (236)
Away
61.1% (684)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
58.0%
43.1%
P2
60.1%
43.1%
P3
61.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
60.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |