Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Seguin 55.4% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 68.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 72.7%
Neutral zone
Seguin 63.6%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Tavares
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tavares
Seguin
Last 7: Tavares 3-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
2
Tavares
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
56.9% (478)
+2.3%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
57.4% (54)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
51.3% (76)
-8.4%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Tavares
Seguin
Home
57.5% (668)
57.4% (317)
Away
61.1% (684)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Tavares
Seguin
P1
58.0%
50.3%
P2
60.1%
60.4%
P3
61.0%
58.0%
OT
27.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
60.7%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |