Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Drouin wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Drouin 85.7%
Defensive zone
Drouin 86.0%
Neutral zone
Drouin 89.0%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Drouin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Drouin
Hertl
Last 10: Drouin 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Drouin
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Drouin
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Drouin
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
53.8% (8,268)
-10.3%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
46.3% (806)
-7.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Drouin shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Drouin
Hertl
Home
44.0% (1,041)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Drouin
Hertl
P1
45.9%
53.6%
P2
42.0%
54.1%
P3
45.0%
55.3%
OT
47.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |