Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Drouin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 51.5%
Defensive zone
Drouin 50.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.0%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Drouin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Drouin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (355)
54.1% (1,117)
-9.0%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
59.8% (296)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
34.4% (32)
-34.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Drouin shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Drouin
Hertl
Home
37.5% (160)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.5% (220)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Drouin
Hertl
P1
40.3%
51.6%
P2
43.3%
53.6%
P3
49.6%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
37.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |