Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Drouin wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 48.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 64.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Drouin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Drouin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (58)
51.6% (1,084)
-3.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
61.0% (246)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.1% (136)
-44.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drouin is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Drouin shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Drouin
Hertl
Home
45.8% (24)
55.2% (696)
Away
47.6% (42)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Drouin
Hertl
P1
46.2%
55.4%
P2
43.5%
54.8%
P3
52.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |