Jonathan Marchessault vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +22.1% FO% edge overall. Marchessault wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 45.9% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-22.1%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Marchessault
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
30.0% (30)
55.4% (826)
-25.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
57.9% (221)
+8.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchessault is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Marchessault shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Marchessault
O'Reilly
Home
33.3% (21)
55.8% (579)
Away
33.3% (12)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Marchessault
O'Reilly
P1
45.5%
57.7%
P2
25.0%
54.8%
P3
22.2%
54.3%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
14.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%