Jonathan Marchessault vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +24.5% FO% edge overall. Marchessault wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 45.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-24.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.9%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 53.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Marchessault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchessault
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Marchessault
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
30.0% (30)
58.1% (823)
-28.1%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
56.2% (265)
+10.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +28.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Marchessault is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Marchessault shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Marchessault
Hertl
Home
33.3% (21)
59.7% (561)
Away
33.3% (12)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Marchessault
Hertl
P1
45.5%
51.6%
P2
25.0%
63.8%
P3
22.2%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
14.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
32.0%▬
32.0%
33.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |