Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Paul 50.4% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 57.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 65.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Paul
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Toews
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Toews
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
53.0% (644)
+5.0%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
37.5% (24)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
42.9% (177)
+8.8%
On power play, Toews has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
59.3% (637)
52.5% (516)
Away
58.7% (699)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
61.5%
47.6%
P2
55.2%
48.4%
P3
60.0%
54.5%
OT
70.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |