Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Paul 53.4% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 54.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 58.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Paul
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Toews
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
53.8% (753)
+7.3%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
58.9% (90)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
47.4% (78)
+12.2%
On power play, Toews has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
64.8% (560)
54.2% (450)
Away
60.6% (381)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
62.3%
58.2%
P2
63.9%
50.6%
P3
62.8%
52.9%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |