Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Paul 53.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 51.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 52.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Toews
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
53.2% (327)
+9.3%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
61.4% (57)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
50.0% (32)
-3.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
60.9% (435)
54.6% (183)
Away
62.0% (434)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
59.8%
56.3%
P2
65.7%
54.8%
P3
58.8%
52.4%
OT
80.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
58.3%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Nick Paul |