Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Paul 52.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 57.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 77.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Toews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Toews
Paul
Last 10: Toews 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
1
Toews
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Toews
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Toews
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
52.5% (3,796)
+4.7%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
56.5% (480)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
46.7% (574)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Toews
Paul
Home
59.7% (9,192)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Toews
Paul
P1
58.6%
53.9%
P2
57.8%
51.0%
P3
57.3%
52.0%
OT
58.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |