Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 63.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Carrick 49.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 77.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 75.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 80.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Toews
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Carrick
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Toews
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Toews
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
48.9% (352)
+9.1%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
81.3% (16)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
42.2% (45)
+9.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Toews shoots left. Carrick is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Toews
Carrick
Home
59.3% (637)
46.9% (192)
Away
58.7% (699)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Toews
Carrick
P1
61.5%
48.1%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |