Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Carrick 52.1% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 51.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 92.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 74.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Toews
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Carrick
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Toews
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Toews
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
52.1% (2,513)
+5.1%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
61.3% (75)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
50.7% (430)
+2.9%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Toews shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Toews
Carrick
Home
59.7% (9,192)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Toews
Carrick
P1
58.6%
51.8%
P2
57.8%
52.2%
P3
57.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
58.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |