Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.8% vs Carrick 51.9% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 54.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 91.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 71.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Toews
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Carrick
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Toews
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Toews
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (12,906)
51.9% (2,420)
+5.2%
Power Play
63.2% (3,220)
61.3% (75)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,808)
50.7% (408)
+2.9%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Toews is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,433).
Toews shoots left. Carrick is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
Home / Away
Toews
Carrick
Home
59.6% (9,086)
51.0% (1,377)
Away
56.1% (8,879)
52.9% (1,526)
By Period
Toews
Carrick
P1
58.7%
51.5%
P2
57.7%
52.0%
P3
57.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
58.1%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
55.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |