Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Steel 49.4% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 59.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 54.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 59.1%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Toews
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Toews
Steel
Last 7: Toews 3-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Toews
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Toews
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
49.3% (383)
+8.7%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
59.1% (22)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
14.3% (7)
+37.4%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +37.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Steel is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Toews
Steel
Home
59.3% (637)
49.4% (180)
Away
58.7% (699)
49.1% (232)
By Period
Toews
Steel
P1
61.5%
51.9%
P2
55.2%
43.8%
P3
60.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
57.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 02:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |