Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Steel 50.6% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 62.8%
Defensive zone
Steel 61.8%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Toews
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
52.5% (200)
+10.0%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
71.4% (7)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
40.0% (45)
+6.9%
On power play, Steel has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Toews
Steel
Home
60.9% (435)
49.5% (109)
Away
62.0% (434)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Toews
Steel
P1
59.8%
49.5%
P2
65.7%
47.5%
P3
58.8%
56.6%
OT
80.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Sam Steel |