Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.5% vs Kuraly 46.9% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 94.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 59.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 86.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Toews
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Kuraly
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
3
1
Toews
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,115)
46.0% (661)
+12.4%
Power Play
61.3% (256)
77.8% (9)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (182)
47.1% (51)
+3.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Toews is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,035).
Toews shoots left. Kuraly is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (524).
Home / Away
Toews
Kuraly
Home
59.5% (783)
47.2% (335)
Away
56.4% (770)
45.9% (386)
By Period
Toews
Kuraly
P1
58.4%
47.1%
P2
59.4%
44.6%
P3
55.9%
48.1%
Final 5 min
58.9%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2018 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 3 | 06:23 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |