Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 29-16 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 99.1%
Defensive zone
Toews 66.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 95.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Toews
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
16
(45 meetings)
29
16
Toews
Kuraly
Last 10: Toews 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
14
4
Toews
Kuraly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
8
Toews
Kuraly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
12
4
Toews
Kuraly
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
51.5% (5,141)
+5.7%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
56.0% (100)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
44.2% (1,086)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Toews
Kuraly
Home
59.7% (9,192)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Toews
Kuraly
P1
58.6%
51.1%
P2
57.8%
49.9%
P3
57.3%
50.0%
OT
58.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
58.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 08:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |