Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 87.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 53.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 80.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Toews
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Toews
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
52.3% (982)
+5.7%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
41.9% (43)
+27.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
39.2% (245)
+12.5%
On power play, Toews has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Toews
Kuraly
Home
59.3% (637)
50.3% (680)
Away
58.7% (699)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Toews
Kuraly
P1
61.5%
49.5%
P2
55.2%
49.6%
P3
60.0%
49.0%
OT
70.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.9%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 06:36 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |