Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 65.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 87.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 69.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Toews
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Toews
Kuraly
Last 6: Toews 2-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Toews
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
51.8% (444)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
45.3% (150)
+1.6%
On even strength, Toews has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Toews
Kuraly
Home
60.9% (435)
54.6% (304)
Away
62.0% (434)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Toews
Kuraly
P1
59.8%
55.2%
P2
65.7%
45.7%
P3
58.8%
49.5%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |