Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.2% vs Hertl 57.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Toews
Hertl
Last 6: Toews 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Toews
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
58.0% (816)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
56.5% (260)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
62.9% (35)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
60.9% (435)
59.7% (561)
Away
61.8% (424)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
60.2%
51.4%
P2
65.7%
64.1%
P3
58.2%
58.5%
OT
75.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |