Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Seguin 52.5% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 57.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 68.6%
Neutral zone
Seguin 53.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Toews
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Toews
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
53.2% (201)
+9.3%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
60.0% (25)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
44.4% (9)
+2.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Toews
Seguin
Home
60.9% (435)
56.3% (126)
Away
62.0% (434)
50.5% (109)
By Period
Toews
Seguin
P1
59.8%
44.3%
P2
65.7%
52.1%
P3
58.8%
62.5%
OT
80.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |