Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Staal 54.1% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 70.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 62.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 65.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Staal
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Nelson
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
55.3% (1,171)
-13.2%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
56.6% (173)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
42.9% (133)
-4.4%
On even strength, Staal has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (972).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
43.8% (224)
54.7% (720)
Away
41.0% (227)
54.0% (757)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
48.1%
51.2%
P2
38.4%
57.4%
P3
39.2%
54.6%
OT
75.0%
52.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 2 | 16:57 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 13:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 05:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2014 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |