Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Staal 57.6% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Nelson
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Nelson
Staal
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Nelson
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
4
Nelson
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
58.9% (1,096)
-12.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
68.4% (57)
-33.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
51.8% (222)
-21.4%
On power play, Staal has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Home / Away
Nelson
Staal
Home
48.7% (419)
57.0% (646)
Away
41.3% (368)
59.1% (729)
By Period
Nelson
Staal
P1
44.6%
55.9%
P2
47.3%
55.4%
P3
43.0%
62.0%
OT
100.0%
70.4%
Final 5 min
39.4%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |