Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Staal 57.6% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 72.5%
Defensive zone
McBain 78.6%
Neutral zone
McBain 76.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
McBain
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McBain
Staal
Last 9: McBain 2-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
McBain
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
4
McBain
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McBain
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
58.9% (1,096)
-12.6%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
68.4% (57)
-30.9%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
51.8% (222)
-14.0%
On power play, Staal has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Home / Away
McBain
Staal
Home
50.6% (330)
57.0% (646)
Away
39.7% (320)
59.1% (729)
By Period
McBain
Staal
P1
45.4%
55.9%
P2
44.5%
55.4%
P3
45.7%
62.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |