Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 73.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Staal
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
1
Staal
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Staal
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
50.0% (992)
+6.1%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
64.9% (148)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
34.4% (32)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
55.4% (663)
53.3% (591)
Away
54.4% (676)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
55.1%
49.9%
P2
54.7%
53.2%
P3
53.9%
50.8%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 04:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 03:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |