Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 83.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 71.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
9
(23 meetings)
14
9
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
2
Staal
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
7
3
Staal
MacKinnon
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
49.2% (1,266)
+7.8%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
54.9% (193)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
49.1% (55)
-4.0%
On even strength, Staal has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
54.3% (667)
50.9% (740)
Away
54.7% (662)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
56.2%
50.9%
P2
57.0%
51.8%
P3
49.7%
47.1%
OT
68.4%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |