Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 19-4 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 72.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 92.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
4
(23 meetings)
19
4
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 10-0 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
3
Staal
MacKinnon
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
0
Staal
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
6
1
Staal
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
44.7% (1,053)
+11.6%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
36.8% (95)
+24.4%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
65.0% (20)
-12.9%
On power play, Staal has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
58.3% (705)
49.4% (553)
Away
53.3% (769)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
54.5%
45.3%
P2
58.2%
42.7%
P3
54.1%
45.1%
OT
60.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2022 | OT | 00:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:23 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 08:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |