Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 58.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 87.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
2
Staal
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
45.5% (1,190)
+13.4%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
56.4% (94)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
40.0% (30)
+11.8%
On even strength, Staal has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
57.0% (646)
47.8% (670)
Away
59.1% (729)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
55.9%
45.3%
P2
55.4%
48.5%
P3
62.0%
45.0%
OT
70.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:57 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 13:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |