Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 59.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 56.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 69.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Staal
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Staal
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,041)
45.8% (755)
+13.1%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
48.3% (60)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (171)
27.6% (29)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
59.0% (578)
49.5% (396)
Away
55.9% (707)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
50.2%
P2
60.9%
43.8%
P3
55.8%
41.4%
OT
20.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.5%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:44 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |