Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 63.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 58.4% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 89.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 83.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 89.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
2
Staal
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
0
Staal
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
7
4
Staal
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (888)
49.3% (1,167)
+9.8%
Power Play
66.9% (121)
61.0% (187)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (156)
47.9% (167)
+4.7%
On even strength, Staal has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 63.6% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
61.2% (600)
57.7% (728)
Away
56.9% (566)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
57.5%
50.1%
P2
60.1%
52.5%
P3
59.1%
49.3%
OT
70.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
59.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
59.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2017 | OT | 00:38 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 15:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 16:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 08:24 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 04:01 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |