Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.1% vs MacKinnon 43.8% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 69.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 91.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 90.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 9: Staal 8-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
0
Staal
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (943)
44.4% (743)
+9.8%
Power Play
69.6% (79)
35.7% (70)
+33.9%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (262)
25.9% (27)
+24.9%
On power play, Staal has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (452).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
55.0% (593)
46.4% (394)
Away
54.0% (691)
40.1% (446)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
54.3%
44.4%
P2
53.5%
38.2%
P3
55.2%
46.4%
OT
58.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2020 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2020 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2020 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 28, 2020 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |