Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 27 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 45-30 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 83.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 90.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 88.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Staal
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
30
(75 meetings)
45
30
Staal
Bjugstad
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
9
9
Staal
Bjugstad
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
18
9
Staal
Bjugstad
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
18
12
Staal
Bjugstad
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
48.6% (6,634)
+7.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
55.2% (829)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
44.3% (614)
+3.7%
On power play, Staal has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Staal
Bjugstad
Home
56.4% (9,663)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Staal
Bjugstad
P1
55.2%
49.0%
P2
55.9%
49.1%
P3
54.9%
48.4%
OT
56.2%
61.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:19 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |