Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 84.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.6%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 53.5%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Staal
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Staal
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Staal
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
48.1% (268)
+8.9%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
50.5% (91)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
58.8% (17)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Staal
Schmaltz
Home
54.3% (667)
49.0% (206)
Away
54.7% (662)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Staal
Schmaltz
P1
56.2%
53.6%
P2
57.0%
46.2%
P3
49.7%
50.4%
OT
68.4%
16.7%
Final 5 min
48.8%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:14 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |