Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs McLeod 49.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 22-20 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 63.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 66.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Staal
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
20
(42 meetings)
22
20
Staal
McLeod
Last 10: Staal 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
6
Staal
McLeod
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
9
2
Staal
McLeod
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
9
12
Staal
McLeod
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
50.4% (3,345)
+5.5%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
51.0% (292)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
44.3% (635)
+3.7%
On power play, Staal has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. McLeod is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Staal
McLeod
Home
56.4% (9,663)
50.2% (2,158)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Staal
McLeod
P1
55.2%
50.8%
P2
55.9%
48.4%
P3
54.9%
50.0%
OT
56.2%
37.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 08:31 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:17 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |