Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.5%). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Carrick 53.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 62.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 60.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Staal
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Staal
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
55.1% (439)
+1.0%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
66.7% (3)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
49.1% (53)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Staal
Carrick
Home
55.4% (663)
58.2% (225)
Away
54.4% (676)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Staal
Carrick
P1
55.1%
56.7%
P2
54.7%
52.8%
P3
53.9%
54.4%
Final 5 min
57.2%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |