Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Steel 50.2% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 60.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 58.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 55.8%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Staal
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Staal
Steel
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
5
Staal
Steel
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
2
Staal
Steel
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Staal
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
50.6% (2,876)
+5.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
62.6% (179)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
37.4% (254)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Staal
Steel
Home
56.4% (9,663)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Staal
Steel
P1
55.2%
51.9%
P2
55.9%
49.5%
P3
54.9%
49.6%
OT
56.2%
41.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 09:34 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 3 | 01:28 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2020 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 3 | 08:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Sam Steel |