Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 24-20 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 57.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 83.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 66.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Staal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
24
(44 meetings)
20
24
Staal
Kuraly
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
5
Staal
Kuraly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
7
Staal
Kuraly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
9
12
Staal
Kuraly
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
51.5% (5,141)
+4.4%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
56.0% (100)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
44.2% (1,086)
+3.8%
On power play, Staal has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Staal
Kuraly
Home
56.4% (9,663)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Staal
Kuraly
P1
55.2%
51.1%
P2
55.9%
49.9%
P3
54.9%
50.0%
OT
56.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:44 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |