Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 13-13 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 72.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 77.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
13
(26 meetings)
13
13
Staal
Novak
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Novak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Staal
Novak
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
Novak
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
41.4% (379)
+14.7%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
46.9% (32)
+20.0%
On power play, Staal has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
55.4% (663)
42.6% (195)
Away
54.4% (676)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
55.1%
42.4%
P2
54.7%
39.2%
P3
53.9%
44.7%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 11:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |