Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.1% vs Novak 44.9% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Staal
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Staal
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (740)
41.7% (206)
+15.5%
Power Play
67.0% (88)
52.6% (19)
+14.4%
On even strength, Staal has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
55.4% (518)
44.9% (118)
Away
55.7% (497)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
53.6%
41.5%
P2
56.6%
44.0%
P3
55.7%
42.0%
Final 5 min
56.8%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |