Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Novak 43.3% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 61.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 85.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
15
(36 meetings)
21
15
Staal
Novak
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
4
5
Staal
Novak
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
6
Staal
Novak
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
9
4
Staal
Novak
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
42.1% (1,539)
+13.8%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
51.9% (133)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
50.0% (2)
-2.0%
On even strength, Staal has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
56.4% (9,663)
45.3% (814)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
55.2%
43.9%
P2
55.9%
42.8%
P3
54.9%
41.7%
OT
56.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 11:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |