Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Novak 45.0% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 56.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 88.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 73.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Staal
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Staal
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
42.9% (198)
+14.1%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
40.9% (22)
+16.8%
On power play, Staal has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
54.3% (667)
40.9% (110)
Away
54.7% (662)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
56.2%
39.1%
P2
57.0%
43.9%
P3
49.7%
44.9%
OT
68.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 02:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |