Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Novak 45.6% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 62.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 72.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Staal
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
43.8% (384)
+12.5%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
58.8% (17)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
100.0% (1)
-47.9%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
58.3% (705)
46.5% (202)
Away
53.3% (769)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
54.5%
49.2%
P2
58.2%
44.2%
P3
54.1%
40.0%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |