Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +24.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Zegras 35.4% (+24.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 88.1%
Defensive zone
Zegras 50.4%
Neutral zone
Zegras 74.2%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 75.2%
24.8%
75.2%
Staal
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Staal
Zegras
Last 8: Staal 2-6 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
4
Staal
Zegras
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Staal
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
29.6% (230)
+26.5%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
32.1% (56)
+34.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
100.0% (1)
-57.0%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Staal
Zegras
Home
55.4% (663)
30.6% (147)
Away
54.4% (676)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Staal
Zegras
P1
55.1%
33.0%
P2
54.7%
31.7%
P3
53.9%
25.6%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.2%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |