Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Zegras 39.2% (+16.7%)
H2H factor
Zegras leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 90.6%
Defensive zone
Zegras 60.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 83.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 81.3%
18.7%
81.3%
Staal
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Staal
Zegras
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
4
Staal
Zegras
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
6
Staal
Zegras
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
38.6% (1,669)
+17.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
38.5% (148)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
28.6% (7)
+19.4%
On power play, Staal has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Staal
Zegras
Home
56.4% (9,663)
39.9% (882)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Staal
Zegras
P1
55.2%
40.2%
P2
55.9%
38.0%
P3
54.9%
37.7%
OT
56.2%
31.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:02 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |