Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 59.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Johnston 50.1% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 55.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Staal
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Johnston
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Staal
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
50.7% (552)
+8.2%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
61.5% (13)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
43.5% (69)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Staal is 59.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Staal shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnston
Home
57.0% (646)
50.3% (342)
Away
59.1% (729)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Staal
Johnston
P1
55.9%
54.4%
P2
55.4%
47.2%
P3
62.0%
49.4%
OT
70.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |