Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Johnston 51.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 55.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 69.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Staal
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Staal
Johnston
Last 9: Staal 7-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
52.6% (696)
+4.4%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
52.3% (88)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
42.4% (125)
+2.7%
On power play, Staal has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnston
Home
54.3% (667)
52.8% (458)
Away
54.7% (662)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Staal
Johnston
P1
56.2%
48.9%
P2
57.0%
52.3%
P3
49.7%
51.4%
OT
68.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 18:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 19:49 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 05:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |