Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Johnston 48.5% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 59.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 67.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Staal
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Staal
Johnston
Last 7: Staal 5-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
47.8% (623)
+8.3%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
50.8% (63)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
51.4% (35)
-8.4%
On power play, Staal has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Staal
Johnston
Home
55.4% (663)
47.6% (351)
Away
54.4% (676)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Staal
Johnston
P1
55.1%
49.6%
P2
54.7%
47.3%
P3
53.9%
48.0%
OT
70.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
57.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |