Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Norris 51.9% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 68.8%
Defensive zone
Norris 68.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 71.6%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Larkin
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Larkin
Norris
Last 9: Larkin 2-7 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Norris
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
2
Larkin
Norris
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
4
Larkin
Norris
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
52.2% (542)
+3.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
54.4% (57)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
46.7% (30)
-0.5%
On even strength, Larkin has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Norris is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
Larkin
Norris
Home
56.0% (654)
50.7% (351)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.0% (278)
By Period
Larkin
Norris
P1
54.4%
55.6%
P2
55.9%
49.3%
P3
55.2%
52.1%
OT
64.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Josh Norris |