Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.4% vs Barzal 41.4% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 58.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 54.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 56.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Norris
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Norris
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Norris
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (203)
40.4% (456)
+9.8%
Power Play
44.4% (36)
34.2% (38)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Norris is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Norris shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Norris
Barzal
Home
44.3% (115)
38.0% (242)
Away
53.4% (131)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Norris
Barzal
P1
52.1%
46.6%
P2
50.0%
35.4%
P3
45.6%
38.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▬
48.5%
49.2%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |