Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Barzal 41.4% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 57.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 57.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 58.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Norris
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Norris
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Norris
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
40.4% (463)
+9.6%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
34.2% (38)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
On power play, Norris has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Norris is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Norris shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Norris
Barzal
Home
47.2% (193)
38.1% (244)
Away
51.6% (246)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Norris
Barzal
P1
53.8%
46.6%
P2
48.2%
35.7%
P3
47.9%
37.7%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |