Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.2% vs Barzal 42.2% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 52.9%
Defensive zone
Norris 62.1%
Neutral zone
Norris 59.5%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Norris
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Norris
Barzal
Last 10: Norris 5-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Norris
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
3
Norris
Barzal
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (2,904)
41.9% (3,558)
+10.7%
Power Play
53.8% (364)
43.4% (205)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
42.3% (26)
+3.1%
On even strength, Norris has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Norris is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,244).
Norris shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,695).
Home / Away
Norris
Barzal
Home
53.2% (1,778)
43.1% (1,893)
Away
51.3% (1,730)
40.9% (1,896)
By Period
Norris
Barzal
P1
55.6%
40.6%
P2
51.8%
44.4%
P3
50.0%
41.0%
OT
41.5%
27.6%
Final 5 min
53.3%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.3%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 14:06 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 08:58 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |